2025 HDC Recap: Industry Faces First RevPAR Decline Since 2020

The 17th annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville brought together industry leaders, analysts, and commercial strategy professionals all looking for the latest industry outlook – and then news was not exactly what they wanted to hear. This year’s big headline came in the opening session when CoStar/STR revised its U.S. hotel forecast for the remainder of 2025 to project negative RevPAR growth for the first time since the COVID pandemic in 2020. 

STR President Amanda Hite said that U.S. RevPAR is now expected to decline 0.1% year-over-year in 2025, with demand also slipping 0.1%. Supply is projected to grow 0.8%, ADR to rise 0.8%, and occupancy to land at 62.5%. “I’m sorry to say, we’ve seen the best this year,” Hite said, according to coverage in CoStar Hotels. “The second half of the year is going to be tough. The next six months are really going to be rocky and probably not feel so great, because we saw the bulk of our growth in the first half of the year – unless you’re a luxury hotel.” 

Luxury and upper-upscale hotels remain the only chain scales projected to see RevPAR growth in 2025. STR forecasted a “slow but steady rebound” in 2026, with most growth arriving in the back half of the year. 

Economic headwinds – from weakening job growth to flat consumer spending and tariff-related inflationary pressure – are influencing the slowdown. Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, noted that current job growth is the weakest since the pandemic. International inbound travel remains another drag, with Canadian travel to the U.S. down 24% year-to-date. Outbound U.S. travel is offsetting domestic gains, while inbound hotel demand is down 0.6% this year. 

Bifurcation of the Market: Targeting the Right Demand Segments 

Several sessions explored the uneven nature of hotel performance. Markets and segments tied to international inbound travel – like New York, Miami, Los Angeles, and Honolulu – are feeling the pullback more acutely. By contrast, properties capturing strong domestic leisure demand or high-profile events are holding steadier. 

Kelsey Fenerty, manager of analytics at STR, stressed the need to drill beyond headlines, saying that the United States is “not a monolith” and that not all hotels are going to perform the same. Opportunities include focusing on event-driven demand, identifying niche group opportunities, and tailoring marketing toward segments with resilience – such as luxury travelers, high-spending leisure guests, or markets benefiting from reduced outbound U.S. travel. 

While 2025 will be marked by turbulence, there is cautious optimism for 2026. GDP growth projections and a relatively low supply pipeline offer tailwinds. The 2026 FIFA World Cup, spread across 16 host U.S. markets, could deliver a broad boost to occupancy and ADR. 

Smaller, more exclusive group gatherings are expected to grow, potentially reshaping meeting and event demand. Leisure travel will remain heavily influenced by school calendars and holiday periods, with midweek business travel still recovering unevenly across markets. 

Behind the Music: USALI Explained 

On the finance and operations side, Otelier’s Russell Meek participated in the panel “Behind the Music: USALI Explained,” where the group discussed the industry’s readiness for the 12th edition of the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI). The panel consensus was that widespread adoption in 2026 will be challenging, with ownership groups hesitant to shift from USALI 11 in fear of losing year-over-year comparability. Many on the panel encouraged operators to actively prepare for the change, even if adoption is gradual.  

How Technology Can Help Weather a Downturn 

One of the consistent themes across sessions was that during a downturn, the need for accurate data and the right technology becomes even greater. Tools that centralize information, automate workflows, and uncover actionable insights can be the difference between simply riding out a rough year and positioning a property for future growth. 

Otelier’s solutions are built with these goals in mind – helping hoteliers work more efficiently, reduce labor costs, and plan more effectively to capture demand in 2026 and beyond. By providing insights down to the profitability level in each department, systems can now empower operators to make smarter, faster decisions that align resources with the highest-impact opportunities. Whether it’s forecasting with greater accuracy, optimizing departmental performance, or identifying cost savings, the right technology can give hotels the agility and precision they need to navigate uncertainty and emerge stronger on the other side.